Content Writer: Janice Chew • Thursday, 25/10/2025 - 22:49:38 - PM
Macau’s gaming industry is on track for a solid third quarter in 2025 as Citigroup projects a 7 percent year-on-year increase in EBITDA, reaching around USD 2.07 billion, underpinned by resilient demand in the mass-market segment despite disruptions from Typhoon Ragasa. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) is similarly forecast to rise 12.5 percent YoY to MOP 62.57 billion (≈ USD 7.78 billion), which would mark the highest quarterly revenue since Macau’s post-COVID reopening. That said, margin pressures are expected: the storm forced a 33-hour shutdown of casino operations and elevated wage costs, shrinking EBITDA margin by an estimated 80 basis points to around 26.6 percent (versus 27.4 percent a year ago).
Within the competitive landscape, Wynn Macau emerges as the standout gainer. Its market share is projected to rise from 11.9 percent in 2Q25 to 13.7 percent in 3Q25, reflecting strong performance in mass-market hold rates and favorable VIP win trends. Wynn’s property EBITDA is estimated to grow 17 percent YoY, reaching about USD 306 million — the most robust growth among Macau operators this quarter. Meanwhile, Sands China is also expected to increase its share modestly from 22.8 percent to 23.7 percent, aided by a new player reinvestment strategy, though its EBITDA growth is forecast at just 1 percent due to less favorable VIP hold conditions. In contrast, MGM China and Melco are likely to cede share, falling by ~1.0 – 1.2 percentage points to 15.6 percent and 14.6 percent respectively, even while MGM anticipates 13 percent EBITDA growth.
However, not all forecasts align with Citigroup’s cautious optimism. CLSA offers a more bullish view, projecting a 10 percent YoY rise in EBITDA (roughly USD 2.06 billion) while acknowledging similar margin headwinds due to the storm and labor costs. CLSA also sees Wynn as the top sequential GGR share gainer, estimating a move to 13.5 percent (up 1.6 percentage points). The variation underscores how sensitive Macau’s margin and operator rankings remain to external factors like weather disruptions and VIP revenue mix. As Macau’s gaming industry heads into its next earnings season, investor focus will likely center on how well operators balance growth with cost pressures and margin stability.