Citigroup Survey Highlights Strong Whale Activity Driving Macau Casino Bets in January

A January survey by Citigroup has found that bet volumes from so-called “whales” in Macau surged by 72% year on year, pointing to a robust rebound in high-end play despite ongoing concerns around margins and regulatory constraints. The findings suggest that top-tier players are returning to the market in greater force, contributing meaningfully to headline gaming volumes at the start of 2026.

According to Citigroup’s channel checks, the increase was driven largely by higher average bet sizes rather than a sharp rise in the number of VIP players. This distinction is important, as it indicates growing confidence among existing high-net-worth gamblers, even as the overall VIP ecosystem remains more tightly controlled than in the pre-2019 era. Analysts noted that premium players appear increasingly comfortable concentrating their play in Macau again, supported by improved travel flows and credit conditions.

However, the survey also reinforced a familiar caution: stronger whale activity does not automatically translate into proportional profit growth. VIP play typically carries lower margins due to commissions, incentives, and operating costs, meaning operators with heavier exposure to high-roller segments may see limited EBITDA upside compared with peers focused on mass and premium mass gaming. This echoes recent commentary from multiple investment banks that revenue mix, rather than absolute GGR growth, is now the key determinant of earnings quality in Macau.

Industry observers say the results nonetheless underline Macau’s enduring appeal to elite gamblers, even under a more regulated and sustainable operating model. While policymakers continue to push for diversification and mass-market growth, the January data suggests that whales remain an important, if more measured, component of the city’s gaming landscape. Going forward, analysts expect investor attention to stay firmly on how operators balance this VIP resurgence with higher-margin segments to support long-term profitability.